Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi broke Russia's Donbas pincer, ISW says
A Ukrainian counteroffensive near Lyman has wrecked the northern half of Russia's plan to encircle the rest of Donetsk region, the Institute for the Study of War said Friday. Ukraine says it retook up to 176 square kilometers. The think tank called Putin's claims of big September gains far from reality.
Ukraine's push near the eastern city of Lyman has derailed a key part of Russia's plan to take the rest of Donetsk region this year, the Institute for the Study of War said Friday.
The Washington think tank said Russia had planned a two-arm pincer. One arm would push from Lyman in the north and the other from Dobropillia in the southwest. They were meant to meet near Barvinkove and surround the "fortress belt," the chain of Ukrainian-held cities that guards what is left of the Donbas.
Ukraine's counteroffensive, called Operation Vivaldi, broke the northern arm, ISW said, Euronews reported. Russian forces near Lyman were pushed onto the defensive and lost positions meant to threaten Sloviansk.
The size of the gains depends on who is counting. Andrii Biletskyi, commander of Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps, said the first three phases in September freed 176 square kilometers. President Volodymyr Zelensky said on October 3 that between 125 and 140 square kilometers had been retaken, the Kyiv Post reported. ISW said the operation may have done better than Kyiv's official numbers show.
Zelensky has said the operation is not finished and a fourth phase is being prepared. He said Ukrainian units used ground robots and drones ahead of infantry to cut losses.
ISW also took aim at Moscow's claims. Pro-Kremlin media said Russia seized 1,301 square kilometers in September alone. Using geolocated video and satellite images, ISW found Russian troops were instead pushed out of at least 80 square kilometers that month. Putin told the Valdai Club last week that Russia holds 89% of Donetsk region. ISW puts it at no more than 81%.
Russia has tried for years to take all of Donetsk, one of four Ukrainian regions it claims to have annexed in 2022. Holding Lyman keeps Ukraine's supply roads open.
ISW warned the fight remains fluid and Russia will likely adapt. Its southern push from the Pokrovsk area is still active.
What we know: Ukraine has retaken ground near Lyman and stalled Russia's northern push.
What we don't: Whether Russia's southern arm can still threaten the fortress belt.
Where outlets agree Euronews and the Kyiv Post both report Zelensky's estimate that Operation Vivaldi had freed 125 to 140 square kilometers near Lyman.
Where they differ Euronews reports that the operation's first three phases freed 176 square kilometers, while Al Jazeera says it has reclaimed 175 square kilometers.