Congo's Ebola outbreak holds at a high plateau, experts warn
Congo's Ebola outbreak has leveled off at about 400 to 500 new cases a week, according to AP. Experts say that is still a very high number. Fewer than a quarter of new cases come from known contacts, so the virus may be spreading out of sight.
Congo's Ebola outbreak has stopped growing fast but is not shrinking, according to the Associated Press. About 400 to 500 new confirmed cases are being reported each week, and that number seems steady, AP reports. The outbreak passed 10,000 confirmed cases this week, AP reports.
"It's at a plateau. And the plateau is at a very, very high set point," Dr. Boghuma Titanji, an Emory University infectious disease expert, said, according to AP. Nearly half of the people infected have died, the news agency says.
Health workers are struggling to track the virus. Fewer than a quarter of new cases come from people known to have been near a sick person, AP reports. That means some chains of spread are going unseen. Armed conflict, mistrust, gaps in care and aid cuts have also slowed the response, experts say.
The World Health Organization's latest outbreak report, dated October 23, counted 9,704 confirmed cases and 4,687 deaths in Congo as of October 20. Cases have turned up in five countries, the WHO says: Congo, Uganda, France, Kenya and Nigeria. Kenya has reported nine cases and one death.
About 30 confirmed cases have now appeared outside Congo, AP reports. The direct risk to the United States is "very close to zero," said Justin Lessler, a University of North Carolina researcher, according to AP. He warned the virus could flare in fragile places such as South Sudan.
The outbreak is caused by the Bundibugyo virus, not the more common Ebola virus. Vaccines against it are being tested, and Titanji said she hopes an effective shot arrives within a year. The largest Ebola outbreak on record, in West Africa from 2014 to 2016, had 28,000 infections, AP notes.
What we know: New cases are holding at about 400 to 500 a week, and the WHO counts more than 9,700 confirmed cases.
What we don't: Whether it will grow into the worst Ebola outbreak ever, and no second news outlet has confirmed AP's account of the plateau.
Where outlets agree AP and the WHO report a large, ongoing Ebola outbreak in Congo with cases in four other countries.
Where they differ The WHO's latest record, issued before AP's report, counts 9,704 confirmed cases as of October 20, below AP's figure of more than 10,000.