UN report says keeping warming to 1.5C is no longer realistic
A United Nations report says the world will go past the 1.5C warming goal, according to Ars Technica, Time and Inside Climate News. Its best case now has warming peak around 1.8C before coming back down. Current climate pledges still fall far short, the report found.
A United Nations report says the goal of limiting warming to 1.5C is no longer realistic, according to Ars Technica, Time and Inside Climate News.
The UN Environment Programme released its yearly Emissions Gap report on Wednesday, Ars Technica and Time reported. Ars Technica said it was the first time UNEP accepted that the 1.5C goal was no longer workable.
"Decades of insufficient climate action makes exceedance of 1.5° C unavoidable," the report states, according to Ars Technica. "Whether it will be temporary crucially depends on decisions taken today."
The report's lowest-warming path would cap warming at about 1.7 to 1.8C, Inside Climate News reported. Ars Technica said the plan has a 66% chance of keeping warming to 1.8C at most. It would also give even odds of getting back below 1.5C by 2100.
That path would need huge cuts, Ars Technica reported. Emissions would have to fall 70% by 2040. Coal power would be phased out by 2040, it said. And 320 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide would need to be pulled from the air by 2100.
Under policies now in place, the planet is on track for 2.8C of warming by 2100, Time reported. If countries meet their newest pledges, warming would still reach 2.6C, Time said.
Global emissions were mostly flat from 2024 to 2025, Ars Technica reported. But emissions from burning fossil fuels went up, it said.
The US State Department said in the report that the US "does not endorse or agree with its analysis or conclusions," Time reported. The US has left the Paris climate deal twice under President Donald Trump, Inside Climate News said.
"We've spent decades postponing cuts to emissions and now we're facing the consequences," said Anne Olhoff, one of the report's authors, according to Time.
The report says every extra bit of warming above 1.5C raises the risk of lasting harm to ice sheets, ocean currents and coral, Ars Technica reported.
What we know: The UN says passing 1.5C of warming can no longer be avoided.
What we don't: Whether countries will cut emissions fast enough to limit the overshoot.
Where outlets agree Ars Technica, Time and Inside Climate News report that the UN's Emissions Gap report says limiting warming to 1.5C is no longer realistic.
Where they differ The cited reports agree on the key facts so far.