NOAA outlook calls for warm northern winter and wetter South
NOAA expects a warmer than normal winter across much of the northern U.S. and a wetter one in the South. A strong El Niño is driving the outlook for December to February. Forecasters said the rain and snow could ease drought, CBS News and the AP reported.
Winter is likely to be warmer than normal across much of the northern U.S. and wetter across the South, NOAA said Thursday in its outlook for December through February, CBS News and the AP reported. A strong El Niño is driving the forecast.
Part or all of 41 of the Lower 48 states are forecast to be warmer than normal, the AP reported. No states, or even parts of states, are forecast to be cooler than average. Florida, Louisiana, southern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi are forecast to be near normal.
The southern band of the U.S., including the Southwest, Southeast and portions of the East Coast, will likely be wetter than average, CBS reported. Parts of the Great Lakes, the northern Mountain West, Hawaii and much of Alaska may see drier winters. NOAA is forecasting that parts or all of 39 states will see a wetter-than-usual winter, the AP said.
The winter weather is expected to ease drought across large parts of the country, including the Southwest, the southern Great Plains and parts of the East Coast, CBS reported. But drought could develop or worsen in Oregon, eastern Washington and parts of the northern Rockies.
The weather service doesn't make seasonal snowfall predictions, but its meteorologists said the Northeast, Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and Northern Rockies should expect below-normal snow, the AP reported. The Southern Rockies and parts of the Southeast and Southwest may get more than usual.
Forecasters warned that a warmer winter does not mean a safe one. "A strong El Niño does not reduce the severity of winter weather risks," National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said at a briefing, CBS reported. He also warned that "too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides."
"It doesn't mean you might not have a snowstorm," Graham said, according to the AP.
What we know: NOAA favors a warm North and a wet South this winter.
What we don't: How much snow any one city will get, since NOAA does not forecast seasonal snowfall.
Where outlets agree CBS News and the AP both report that NOAA's outlook favors a warmer northern U.S. and a wetter South this winter because of a strong El Niño.
Where they differ The outlets cited here report the same key facts so far.