Social Security raise comes Wednesday; Medicare may take a bite
The 2027 Social Security cost-of-living raise will be announced Wednesday, Oct. 14, after September inflation data comes out. Forecasters' estimates range from about 3.2% to 3.6%. A higher Medicare premium could take part of the raise before it reaches retirees' bank accounts in January.
More than 71 million Americans will learn the size of next year's Social Security raise in five days.
The Social Security Administration plans to announce the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, on Wednesday, Oct. 14. That follows the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of September inflation data at 8:30 a.m. ET that day, AS USA reported. The raise takes effect in January and also applies to Supplemental Security Income.
Until then, every number is an estimate. The COLA is based on a price index called CPI-W. The government compares its average for July, August and September with the same months a year earlier. Two of the three readings are already in: July at 327.104 and August at 328.481, 24/7 Wall St. reported.
Forecasts vary. The Senior Citizens League puts the raise at 3.5%. AARP estimated 3.6%, and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget had the lowest estimate at 3.2%, 24/7 Wall St. said. Any of those would beat this year's 2.8% raise.
In dollars, a 3.5% raise would add about $73 a month to the average retired worker's check, which was about $2,088 in August, according to the outlet.
Medicare may shrink that gain. For most retirees, the Part B premium comes straight out of the Social Security check. It rose $18 to $203 this year, eating nearly a third of the 2026 raise. The 2026 Medicare Trustees Report projects a smaller increase for 2027, to about $210, 24/7 Wall St. reported. With a 3.5% raise, that would leave the average retiree about $66 more a month. The official premium usually comes in November.
The Senior Citizens League also argues the CPI-W does not fully reflect costs that matter most to older people, such as health care and housing, AS USA reported.
What we know: The official 2027 raise will be announced Oct. 14.
What we don't: The final percentage, which depends on September's inflation data.
Where outlets agree AS USA and 24/7 Wall St. both report that the 2027 COLA will be announced Oct. 14 and that a 3.5% raise would add about $73 to the average retired worker's monthly check.
Where they differ The outlets cited here report the same key facts so far.