NOAA: El Niño keeps strengthening, record strength likely this fall
NOAA's monthly update says El Niño intensified in September and should continue building through the end of the year. Forecasters now estimate an 83% chance it becomes the strongest event since 1950 by late fall. That could mean a wetter winter across southern states and California, and milder temperatures across much of the North.
El Niño is still gaining strength, and U.S. forecasters say a record event is now more likely than not.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released its monthly update Thursday. It said ocean temperatures in a key area of the tropical Pacific reached 2.1 degrees Celsius above normal last month. Parts of the eastern Pacific ran more than 4 degrees above normal.
The center gives an 83% chance that El Niño will pass the strength of every event since 1950 during October through December. That chance is 54% for September through November and 70% for November through January. The center expects a strong to very strong El Niño through early 2027.
The odds rose from September, when the center put the chance of a record at 75%, SFGATE reported. "There is a slight uptick from last month to this month, but not by much," Michelle L'Heureux of the Climate Prediction Center told SFGATE. She said confidence grew because forecasters are a month closer to the season they are predicting.
El Niño is a natural warming of the tropical Pacific that can shift weather around the world. In the U.S., southern states face higher odds of a wet winter, while much of the North leans warmer, Marca reported. NOAA cautions that even a powerful event does not guarantee the usual effects everywhere.
California is already preparing. Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in September. NOAA's seasonal outlook favors above-normal precipitation across the state this winter, and coastal experts warn of high water and erosion, SFGATE reported.
The effects reach beyond the U.S. Britain's Met Office said El Niño could bring wetter, windier and milder weather there in late fall and early winter, Xinhua reported.
The next NOAA update is due Nov. 12.
What we know: El Niño is strengthening, and a record-strength event is likely by late fall.
What we don't: How strong it will peak and how hard it will hit any one region.
Where outlets agree SFGATE and Marca both report that the Climate Prediction Center's Oct. 8 update shows El Niño still strengthening, with high odds of a record event.
Where they differ The outlets cited here report the same key facts so far.