Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in first runoff polls, wins key endorsement
Two new polls show Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva before Brazil's Oct. 25 runoff. The vote decides whether Latin America's biggest economy stays on the left or turns right. Datafolha has Bolsonaro at 49% and Lula at 45%, a gap the pollster still calls a technical tie.
Flávio Bolsonaro starts the runoff campaign in front.
The first Datafolha poll since Sunday's vote shows the senator at 49% and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 45%, Reuters reported. The margin of error is 2 points, so the pollster calls it a technical tie. Among valid votes, which leave out blank ballots and undecided voters, Bolsonaro leads 52% to 48%, G1 reported. Datafolha surveyed 2,520 people on Oct. 6 and 7.
A second poll shows a wider gap. A PoderData/Aya survey released Thursday has Bolsonaro at 53% and Lula at 47%, Anadolu Agency reported. That poll had the two tied at 50% before the first round.
Bolsonaro also picked up support from the man who finished third. Author and psychiatrist Augusto Cury endorsed him on Thursday, Reuters reported. Cury won 2.89% of valid votes and had campaigned as neither left nor right. Ronaldo Caiado, another top-five finisher, backed Bolsonaro earlier this week. Renan Santos said he will not endorse either candidate.
Those endorsements are a shift. Right after Sunday's vote, the Associated Press reported that Cury, Caiado and Santos had said they would not back either finalist.
In the first round, Bolsonaro won 47.03% of valid votes to Lula's 45.16%. Neither cleared the 50% needed to win outright.
How this fits: Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth term. Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro and an ally of President Trump. The next term begins Jan. 5.
Both camps now have just over two weeks to win over voters whose candidates were knocked out. More pollsters are expected to release runoff surveys soon.
What we know: Bolsonaro leads both new polls, and the third-place finisher has endorsed him.
What we don't: Whether Lula can close the gap before Oct. 25, and how many voters will stay home.
Where outlets agree Reuters via Arab News and Anadolu Agency both report that Bolsonaro won 47.03% of valid votes to Lula's 45.16% in the first round, with the runoff set for Oct. 25.
Where they differ Anadolu Agency reports a PoderData/Aya poll with Bolsonaro ahead 53% to 47%, while Reuters via Arab News reports Datafolha's 49% to 45% gap is still a technical tie.