Record-warm Pacific powers a 'super' El Niño, putting children at risk
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have hit record levels, a sign El Niño keeps strengthening, NBC News reported. NOAA puts the odds of a historic event this fall at 75%. UNICEF says more than 347 million children in nearly 100 countries face unusually wet or dry weather from October through December.
The El Niño warming the Pacific is setting records. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific spiked to record levels this fall, NBC News reported Tuesday. In the zone where El Niño is usually measured, the water runs 6.1 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gives a greater than 90% chance of a "very strong" event this fall and winter. It puts a 75% chance on a historic event from October to December, stronger than any El Niño since 1950. In September, a key Pacific temperature index topped every past El Niño, including 1997 and 2015, UN News said.
Children face some of the biggest risks. UNICEF said Tuesday that more than 347 million children in nearly 100 countries and territories live where El Niño could bring unusually dry or wet weather by December. About 190 million of them are in Asia and the Pacific. "For children, El Niño is far more than a weather pattern," said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell. She warned of displacement, hunger, water shortages and disease.
Papua New Guinea is already feeling it. Water sources are drying up, crops are failing and food prices are rising, UN News reported. About 1.2 million people there need direct food help. The government approved a $112 million emergency budget.
What is El Niño? Winds near the equator weaken, and cold water stops rising off South America. The Pacific warms, and weather shifts around the world. It often weakens Atlantic hurricane seasons. It tends to bring rain and storms to the U.S. Southeast and leave the Pacific Northwest warm, with less snow. Clark University climatologist Abby Frazier told NBC that rice, coffee and chocolate could be hit, which may raise grocery prices.
Signs are showing up close to home. Whale sharks, sea snakes and nesting turtles have been spotted off California, farther north than usual, NBC said.
What's next: NOAA's next monthly El Niño update is scheduled for Thursday, Oct. 8. A regional El Niño meeting opens next week in Bangkok, UN News said.
What we know: El Niño is strong and still growing, with record Pacific heat.
What we don't: Exactly where drought and floods will land this winter.
Where outlets agree NBC News and NOAA both put the chance of a 'very strong' El Niño this fall and winter at about 90% or higher, with a 75% chance of a historic event.
Where they differ UN News says a key index topped every past El Niño in September, while NBC News says NOAA's index ranks this event second-biggest on record for July through September.