Social Security recipients will learn the size of next year's raise in one week. The Social Security Administration plans to announce the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, on Oct. 14, the same day September inflation data come out.

Forecasts fall in a narrow range. The Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, and independent analyst Mary Johnson both expect 3.5%, the Motley Fool reported. AARP expects 3.6%. That compares with 2.8% this year. A 3.5% raise would be the biggest since 2023, Investopedia reported.

In dollars, the Senior Citizens League says a 3.5% COLA would add almost $68 a month for the average beneficiary. AARP says its 3.6% forecast would add about $75 for the average retiree. Almost 76 million Americans get Social Security benefits.

The raise is tied to a price index called the CPI-W. The agency compares prices from July to September with the same months a year earlier. Higher energy costs linked to wars in Iran and Ukraine have pushed inflation up this year, Investopedia reported.

Medicare will take some of the gain. Most people have their Part B premium taken straight out of their Social Security check. Medicare's trustees project the standard premium will rise $6.60, to $209.50 a month, AARP reported. The deductible would go from $283 to $292. The government usually confirms those numbers later in the fall. A rule called "hold harmless" keeps premium increases from shrinking most people's checks below what they got the year before.

Some experts warn that a bigger raise is not all good news. "The only way for there to be a generous COLA is for inflation to be elevated," the Motley Fool noted. COLAs are meant to keep up with prices, not boost buying power.

What we know: The official 2027 COLA comes out Oct. 14, and forecasts sit between 3.5% and 3.6%.
What we don't: Whether September's inflation data will move the final number.