Social Security raise for 2027 expected near 3.5%; announcement Oct. 14
Social Security's 2027 cost-of-living raise will be announced Oct. 14, after September inflation data come out. The Senior Citizens League and analyst Mary Johnson both forecast 3.5%, which would lift the average retirement check by about $67.90 a month. Higher Medicare Part B premiums could eat into that gain.
More than 71 million Social Security recipients will learn their 2027 raise on Oct. 14. That's when the government releases September inflation data, the last piece of the formula.
Early forecasts point to 3.5%, a figure projected by both the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, and independent analyst Mary Johnson, 401(k) Specialist reported. That would be the biggest raise in three years, after 2.8% for 2026 and 2.5% for 2025.
For a typical retiree, 3.5% would raise the average monthly check from $1,940.08 to $2,007.98, the league estimates. That's about $67.90 more a month.
Here's how the raise is set. The Social Security Administration compares average inflation in July, August and September with the same months a year earlier. It uses a price index called CPI-W, which tracks costs for urban wage earners and clerical workers. The new amount takes effect in January payments.
Some analysts think the number could come in higher. A Motley Fool analysis argued that a spike in fuel prices in September, including record diesel prices, could push the final figure up.
Medicare will take a bite out of that raise, since most retirees have Part B premiums taken out of their checks. Medicare's trustees projected the standard premium will rise from $202.90 to $209.50 a month in 2027. The final number is due in November. This year, the Part B jump ate about a third of the raise, 401(k) Specialist noted.
Many retirees say the raises fall short, and in a league survey, 89% said this year's 2.8% raise was too low. About 44% said they rely on Social Security as their only income.
Some history helps. Over the past decade, raises have averaged about 3.1%, according to 401(k) Specialist. The largest recent raise was 8.7% for 2023, during the inflation spike after the pandemic.
What to do: Watch for your new benefit amount in your my Social Security account online, usually in early December. Budget for the Part B change, which will lower the net increase.
What we know: The official 2027 raise will be announced Oct. 14, and leading forecasts sit at 3.5%.
What we don't: The final figure, and how much higher Part B premiums will take back.
Where outlets agree The Senior Citizens League and 401(k) Specialist, citing analyst Mary Johnson, both forecast a 3.5% raise for 2027, the largest in three years.
Where they differ The league and Johnson hold their forecast at 3.5%, while a Motley Fool analysis argues September's fuel price spike could push the final figure higher.