Stocks rise on soft jobs; 10-year yield ends near 5.28%
U.S. stocks closed higher Friday after weak September payrolls, with the S&P 500 up about 0.7%. Treasury yields fell then reversed; the 10-year dipped near 5.16% before finishing around 5.28%. Mortgage-rate households still face elevated borrowing costs into next week.
Wall Street ended the week higher after September’s soft jobs print, while bond yields refused to stay down. MarketScreener’s Reuters wrap and LiveMint show major indexes rose as traders cut near-term Fed hike odds: the S&P 500 gained roughly 0.7% (closing near 7,723 on some prints), the Dow added about 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose more than 1%. The dollar slipped against the euro and yen as equities caught a bid from cooler hiring and softer oil.
Treasuries told a more complicated story. Yields sank right after the 29,000-payroll surprise, then sold off into the close. LiveMint/Reuters put the 10-year yield up about 4.7 basis points to 5.281% after an earlier dip to about 5.16%; the 2-year rose to about 4.83% after touching a two-week low. For the week, the 10-year was on track for a fifth consecutive weekly advance even as the 2-year posted its first weekly decline since mid-August. LSEG data showed traders still pricing a high chance of a December hike even as October odds fell toward roughly one-in-five. Strategists cited profit-taking, heavy Treasury issuance, and inflation worries tied to energy and the Iran war.
For homeowners and car buyers, the stake is whether softer labor data finally pulls long rates down or whether the multi-week climb in 10-year yields keeps mortgage quotes elevated. Oil’s Friday slide on G7 reserve-release talk helped equities. Watch Monday futures, any weekend geopolitics premium, and Fed speakers before the next inflation prints.
What we know:
Equities closed higher on soft jobs; 10-year yields reversed higher near 5.28%; October hike odds fell while December odds stayed elevated.
What we don’t:
Whether next week’s data confirm a Fed pause path or reignite the bond selloff.
Where outlets agree LiveMint/Reuters and MarketScreener agree stocks rose on soft jobs while Treasury yields ended higher after an early dip.
Where they differ Desks disagree how far the soft payrolls reprice the Fed path into December versus keeping inflation-driven selloff risk alive.