This October is on track to be the hottest October ever recorded, Scientific American reports. Global temperatures this month are set to be about 1.76 degrees Celsius, or about 3.17 degrees Fahrenheit, above preindustrial levels, the magazine reports. That would beat the record set in October 2023. The month is not over, so the figure is a projection, not a final count.

Two climate scientists, Andrew Dessler and Zeke Hausfather, made the projection, Scientific American reports. It is based on data from the Europe-based Copernicus Climate Change Service, the magazine says.

Hausfather links the record to El Niño. "This year's record-setting October is a sign that the 'Super El Niño' is kicking into gear and will likely be the first in a series of record-setting months, culminating in a record-setting 2027," he said, according to Scientific American.

El Niño is a natural pattern that sets in when part of the Pacific Ocean runs unusually warm. It can add to the warming caused by burning fossil fuels and push global temperatures higher, the magazine explains. In October 2023, also an El Niño year, the world was 1.7 degrees Celsius warmer than in preindustrial times, the two scientists found. That year was the hottest on record until 2024 beat it, Scientific American reports.

A hot October also puts 2026 on track to be among the hottest years on record, if not the hottest, according to the projections. The likely record follows other highs this year, the magazine reports. They include the hottest September on record in the United States and record global ocean temperatures.

What we know: Early data put this October above the 2023 record, according to projections by two climate scientists.
What we don't: The final figure for the month. Only Scientific American has reported this so far, and NewsHabit hasn't seen independent confirmation.