Cook shifts South Carolina, Mississippi Senate races toward Democrats
The Cook Political Report moved Senate races in South Carolina and Mississippi toward Democrats on Tuesday, CNN and the Washington Examiner reported. It moved the Minnesota race the other way, toward the GOP. Voters go to the polls in two weeks, on November 3.
The Cook Political Report moved South Carolina's Senate race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican" and Mississippi's from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican" on Tuesday, CNN and the Washington Examiner reported. It also shifted Minnesota from "Likely Democrat" to "Lean Democrat," a move toward Republicans, according to CNN.
In South Carolina, Republican nominee Darline Graham, who replaced her late brother, Senator Lindsey Graham, on the ticket, has struggled to galvanize Republicans against Democrat Annie Andrews, CNN reported. Cook pointed to Graham's young political career, a viral primary debate gaffe and Andrews' fundraising, the Washington Examiner reported. Andrews ended the third quarter with $2.3 million in cash on hand to Graham's $609,731, according to the Examiner.
In Mississippi, Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith faces Democrat Scott Colom. Senate Majority PAC, the top Democratic super PAC in Senate races, announced a $1.2 million ad buy against Hyde-Smith on Tuesday, the Washington Post reported. Cook cited Hyde-Smith's past underperformance and the Supreme Court's decision in Louisiana v. Callais, the Examiner reported. Hyde-Smith beat Mike Espy by 10 points in 2020, and Trump carried the state by nearly 23 points in 2024, the Post reported.
In Minnesota, Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan faces Republican Michele Tafoya for an open seat. "Republicans have been bullish on Minnesota for months given the state's welfare fraud scandal," Cook analyst Jessica Taylor wrote, according to the Examiner. A state Democratic official called the race "far too close for comfort," CNN reported. Tafoya outraised Flanagan in the third quarter, CNN reported.
Taylor called the Southern shifts "further evidence that Democrats have expanded the map into red territory even in the Deep South," the Examiner reported. Cook based the moves partly on candidate quality, the Post reported. Republicans face headwinds nationwide, including high grocery and gas prices and the war in Iran, according to the Post.
What we know: Cook moved South Carolina and Mississippi toward Democrats and Minnesota toward Republicans two weeks before Election Day.
What we don't: Whether polling in those states will tighten before November 3.
Where outlets agree CNN and the Washington Examiner report that Cook moved South Carolina to Lean Republican, Mississippi to Likely Republican and Minnesota to Lean Democrat.
Where they differ CNN reports a state Democratic official called Minnesota "far too close for comfort," while the Washington Examiner reports Flanagan still leads Tafoya by about 3.2 points in the RealClearPolitics average.