Retailers forecast first $1 trillion holiday season, led by wealthier shoppers
U.S. holiday sales will top $1 trillion for the first time this year, the National Retail Federation forecast Thursday, the Boston Globe and AP reported. The group expects sales to rise 4.2% in November and December. Its top economist said richer households are doing much of the spending, while others feel high gas and food prices.
The National Retail Federation forecast Thursday that U.S. holiday sales will top $1 trillion for the first time, the Boston Globe and The Associated Press reported.
The trade group expects retail sales in November and December to grow 4.2% to $1.013 trillion, up from $972 billion last year, the Globe reported. That would be faster growth than in 2025, when sales rose 3.1%, the outlets said.
The record total does not mean all Americans feel flush, the Globe reported. Higher-income households are spending more, while rising gas and food prices are squeezing lower-income shoppers, NRF chief economist Mark Mathews said, according to the Globe. "We definitely see a K," he said, referring to a so-called K-shaped economy. In some retail sectors, the top 10% of spenders account for as much as 70% of sales, he said.
The forecast is not adjusted for inflation, AP reported, and the NRF and other forecasters expect higher prices to account for about half of the expected growth. AP said the average price of regular gas rose to $4.33 a gallon Thursday, according to AAA.
"We all acknowledge households continue to navigate persistent inflation and uneven confidence about the economy," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay told reporters, AP reported. "But throughout the year, consumers have repeatedly shown that holidays and spending on loved ones are priorities."
Bryan Eshelman of AlixPartners told AP that shoppers are trading down to cheaper brands and stores, shopping earlier and leaning more on credit cards and buy now, pay later plans. The Mastercard Economics Institute forecast a 5.5% rise in holiday sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24, AP reported.
The NRF expects retailers to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, in line with last year, the Globe said. Mathews said stiff competition and value-conscious shoppers will make it hard for stores to pass on higher shipping costs, the Globe reported.
What we know: The NRF forecasts $1.013 trillion in November-December sales, up 4.2%, with about half the growth expected to come from higher prices.
What we don't: Whether lower-income shoppers pull back further as gas and food prices rise.
Where outlets agree The Boston Globe and AP both report that the NRF expects November and December sales to rise 4.2% and top $1 trillion for the first time.
Where they differ The outlets cited here report the same key facts so far.