Two new polls show the US Senate race in Texas between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton is very close.

A Marist poll found Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 45% among likely voters, USA Today reported. Among registered voters, Talarico leads by 4 points, down from 6 points last month, Marist said.

The poll surveyed 1,196 registered voters from Oct. 8 to 11, Marist said. The margin of error for likely voters is 4.9 points, so the race is within it.

A majority of likely voters, 53%, think Paxton will win no matter whom they support, according to Marist. Talarico leads among independents, with 52%.

A separate poll from Quantus Insights found Paxton ahead, 47.2% to 46.7%, Breitbart News reported. "Our latest Quantus Insights survey finds Paxton ahead by half a point, as Republican strength among older and rural voters meets a Democratic advantage among independents," the pollster said.

That poll found Talarico leading independents by 15 points, Breitbart said. Paxton has the support of 87% of Republicans, up from the low 80s after his hard-fought primary against Sen. John Cornyn.

Paxton leads voters 65 and older, 56% to 39%, Breitbart reported. Talarico leads younger voters, including 62% to 29% among those under 30. Younger voters are less likely to vote in midterms, the outlet noted.

The race is the most expensive of the 2026 midterms, Breitbart said. Republican-aligned groups have spent heavily against Talarico.

Marist also found Republican Gov. Greg Abbott ahead of Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 4 points among likely voters.

A Democrat has not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994. Early voting starts next week.

What we know: Two new polls show the Texas Senate race within a few points.
What we don't: Who will win on Nov. 3.