Kalshi investigates well-timed bets on Trump's press secretary pick
Prediction market Kalshi is investigating at least three bets placed on Katie Zacharia becoming White House press secretary shortly before the news broke, The Wall Street Journal reported. Zacharia had about a 1% chance on the market. Bets totaling about $173 could pay out roughly $9,600.
The prediction market Kalshi is investigating suspicious bets on President Donald Trump's choice of a new White House press secretary, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Kalshi is looking into at least three trades placed shortly before news outlets reported that Trump had picked Katie Zacharia, The Hill reported. A company spokeswoman confirmed the investigation but would not share details about the traders.
Before the news, the market gave Zacharia about a 1% chance of getting the job. That made bets on her very cheap, with huge possible payouts.
One trader placed a $19 bet at about 10:43 p.m. Eastern time on Thursday, Oct. 8, according to reports. It is expected to pay $1,896. Two more bets of $74 and $80 were placed at 1:41 p.m. and could pay $3,689 and $4,023. In all, about $173 in bets could return about $9,600.
The timing raises a hard question: did someone already know the answer? Betting on an outcome with private, inside information is the kind of thing prediction markets say they ban.
Trump announced the pick Friday. He praised Zacharia as a "devoted fan and member of MAGA."
Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It lets people bet on real-world events, from elections to sports. Such markets have boomed in the past two years. They have also faced questions about insider trading, especially on markets tied to government decisions that only a few people know about in advance.
Kalshi did not say what action it might take if it finds wrongdoing.
What we know: Kalshi is reviewing at least three trades placed shortly before Zacharia was named.
What we don't: who placed the bets or what action Kalshi might take.
Where outlets agree The Wall Street Journal and The Hill both report Kalshi is reviewing at least three trades placed before the announcement.
Where they differ The outlets cited here report the same key facts so far.