The respiratory virus season is starting, and federal health experts expect it to look a lot like last winter.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's forecasting center says the combined weekly peak of hospital stays from COVID-19, flu and RSV should land within 20% of last season's peak, Morning Overview reported. Last winter, the three viruses together peaked at 16.6 hospital stays per 100,000 people in early January. A similar peak this year would fall between about 13 and 20 per 100,000.

The outlook covers October through May. CDC calls it a planning baseline, not a forecast, and says its confidence is low to moderate.

COVID-19 is the big wild card. If no new variant that dodges immunity appears, CDC expects a COVID peak of 1.4 to 2.5 hospital stays per 100,000, most likely in early to mid-January. If such a variant shows up before mid-December, the peak could reach 2.8 to 6.7, most likely in late January. About 65% of the experts CDC surveyed thought that kind of variant was unlikely.

Flu is expected to be moderate. RSV is expected to peak near last year's level, though last season's RSV peak came late, in February.

Vaccines remain the main defense. CDC recommends a flu shot for everyone 6 months and older, SSBCrack News reported. This year's COVID-19 shots target the XFG strain. RSV shots are recommended once for adults 75 and older and for those 50 to 74 at higher risk.

Doctors suggest getting a flu shot by the end of October because it takes about two weeks to work. Flu and COVID-19 shots can be given at the same visit. Most pharmacies offer them without an appointment.

Right now, flu and RSV activity is low nationally, and COVID-19 hospital stays remain low.

What we know: CDC expects a peak close to last winter's.
What we don't: Whether a new COVID variant will change that.