The yearly raise for more than 71 million Social Security recipients is less than a week away. The Social Security Administration will announce the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, on Wednesday, Oct. 14. That is when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September inflation data.

The COLA is based on a price index called CPI-W, which tracks costs for urban wage earners. The government averages its yearly change for July, August and September. July came in at 3.4% and August at 3.5%, The Senior Citizens League said.

The group's final estimate is a 3.5% raise. That would lift the average monthly check from $1,940.08 to $2,007.98, an increase of $67.90. It would beat this year's 2.8% COLA. The raise takes effect Jan. 1, 2027.

Some think it could come in higher. Motley Fool writer Sean Williams argues that soaring fuel prices tied to the Iran war, plus rising electronics costs, could push the raise above 3.5%. A 3.5% raise would tie for the sixth largest in 35 years, he wrote, citing estimates by TSCL and policy analyst Mary Johnson.

Many seniors feel behind anyway. In TSCL's 2026 survey, 89% of older Americans said the 2026 COLA was too low. The survey also found 44% of seniors rely on Social Security for all their income.

"When prices rise, they don't rise next January when your benefit check goes up. They rise right now," said Shannon Benton, TSCL's executive director.

TSCL's example shows how the math works: a $2,000 monthly check would rise to $2,070 with a 3.5% COLA. The group says the raise will apply as a percentage to all benefit checks. Its estimate comes from a model that uses the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve's interest rate and the unemployment rate.

What we know: The official raise comes Oct. 14, with forecasts near 3.5%.
What we don't: Whether September's fuel price jump pushes it higher.