Nobel Peace Prize comes Friday, and experts say Trump won't win
The Norwegian Nobel Committee names the 2026 Peace Prize winner Friday at 11 a.m. in Oslo, or 5 a.m. ET. Experts told Reuters that President Trump will not win as he wages war with Iran. Pope Leo, the world's top courts and a U.N. expert are among names floated.
The world learns the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday. The Norwegian Nobel Committee will make the announcement at 11 a.m. Oslo time, which is 5 a.m. ET, at the Norwegian Nobel Institute. The Nobel Prize will stream it live on its official channels, including YouTube.
The field looks wide open, The Independent reported. But experts say one name is unlikely. President Donald Trump "will not win this year's Nobel Peace Prize as he wages war with Iran," experts told Reuters, in a story carried by Al-Monitor.
Last year's prize shapes this year's choice. The 2025 award went to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, despite heavy pressure from Trump to win it himself. Weeks later, Machado gave her gold medal to Trump, hoping to win his support for a democratic Venezuela.
"I think last year's events around the Nobel Peace Prize, Maria Corina Machado giving it to Trump afterwards, will affect some of the considerations that they make," said Haakon Gjerloew, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo. He said the five-member committee may weigh whether a winner could stand up to pressure from Trump, and "whether the award does more harm than good."
That could point to a few names, experts told Reuters. They include Pope Leo, the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice, and Francesca Albanese, the U.N. expert on the occupied Palestinian territories.
Pope Leo, the first U.S.-born pope, has said he will keep speaking out against war. Trump called him "weak" for criticizing the U.S. conflict with Iran. "The Pope stands (for) more than just as a religious figure," said Karim Haggag of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Albanese has faced criticism from the United States and Israel.
The White House scolded the committee for putting "politics over peace" when Trump was passed over in 2025, The Independent noted.
Friday's prize is the fifth of six. The economics prize follows on Monday, Oct. 12.
What we know: The winner will be named Friday at 5 a.m. ET.
What we don't: Who the committee picked.
Where outlets agree NobelPrize.org and The Independent both list the Peace Prize announcement for Friday, Oct. 9, at 11 a.m. in Oslo.
Where they differ The Independent calls the field wide open, while experts quoted by Reuters rule out Trump and point to a shorter list led by Pope Leo and the world courts.