Polls show Spain's right headed for majority in Nov. 29 vote
Spain's conservatives and the far-right Vox party would win a clear majority if the Nov. 29 snap election were held now, a new polling average shows. The People's Party leads with about 33%, ahead of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's Socialists at 26%. Sánchez is betting on the housing crisis to close the gap.
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez starts Spain's snap election campaign well behind. A polling average by El Confidencial, published Tuesday, puts the conservative People's Party (PP) at 32.8%. Sánchez's Socialists sit at 26.3%. The far-right Vox party is third at 18.2%.
The seat math looks worse for the left. Polls give the PP and Vox together between 202 and 212 seats, a comfortable absolute majority, El Confidencial reported. In 2023, the two parties won 170. The left-wing parties together would get between 107 and 119 seats, down from 152.
Sánchez called the Nov. 29 election after lawmakers rejected his housing measures. Housing is his main theme. Spain's official CIS survey has ranked it the country's top problem since late 2024. Most voters across parties back building more public housing, El Confidencial found. The right is expected to focus on immigration and on corruption cases near the government.
PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo has said he is comfortable governing with Vox, Politico Europe reported. The two parties already share power in several regions. Sumar, Sánchez's junior partner, has slumped and has no leader. Health Minister Mónica García is among the names to head a new left alliance.
Turnout is a worry for the left. In the CIS's September survey, 83.9% of Socialist voters said they were sure to vote. That compared with 90.3% for the PP.
Sánchez has come back before. When he called the 2023 election, polls had his party at 24%. It won 31.7%, nearly eight points better. But El Confidencial notes the left now starts almost twice as far behind.
Other events could shift the race. King Felipe VI plans to visit Ceuta and Melilla, Spain's two exclaves on the North African coast, next week. Morocco claims both and has called the visit a "provocation," Politico Europe reported. Thousands of migrants remain in Ceuta after a mass crossing.
Some background: Sánchez has led Spain for eight years. He stayed in power after the 2023 vote by forming a majority with far-left, regional and separatist parties.
What we know: The PP leads, and PP plus Vox polls well above a majority.
What we don't: Whether housing anger can lift turnout on the left.
Where outlets agree El Confidencial and Politico Europe both put the People's Party in the low-to-mid 30s, the Socialists near 26% and Vox around 18%.
Where they differ Sánchez beat his launch polls by nearly eight points in 2023, but El Confidencial says the left now starts almost twice as far behind.