Tropical Depression Nine forms in Gulf, forecast to become Hurricane Isaias
Tropical Depression Nine formed in the Gulf on Tuesday. The hurricane center says it should be Tropical Storm Isaias by early Wednesday, a hurricane by Thursday and near the coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle by Friday. Much of that coast could get 3 to 6 inches of rain, and some spots could see 10 inches.
A storm has formed in the Gulf, and forecasters expect it to grow fast. The National Hurricane Center began advisories on Tropical Depression Nine at 5 p.m. EDT Tuesday. The system, once called Invest 92L, sat about 380 miles west of Progreso, Mexico, and 630 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Its top winds were 35 mph, and it was drifting east at 5 mph.
The center expects it to become Tropical Storm Isaias by early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday. It should pass north of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday before it turns northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Fox Weather and nola.com said the forecast shows a Category 2 hurricane with winds near 100 mph before it reaches land late Friday or early Saturday. The first forecast cone stretches from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
There are no coastal watches or warnings yet, but the hurricane center said watches could be needed on Wednesday. It urged people from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle to have a hurricane plan ready.
Rain may be the biggest threat. The center calls for 3 to 6 inches from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle from Friday through the weekend, with up to 10 inches in spots. Flash flooding and some river flooding are possible.
The path is still not settled. "It appears the stronger the system gets, the faster it will move toward the coast," forecaster John Cangialosi wrote. Very warm Gulf water could feed the storm. But strong wind shear, winds that can tear a storm apart, could weaken it near the coast, weather.com and the USA Today Network said.
It has been a strangely quiet season. A strong El Niño has kept wind shear high over the Atlantic and choked off storms, The Boston Globe and weather.com reported. Isaias would be the ninth named storm of 2026. If it becomes a hurricane, it would be the first one of the year and the latest first hurricane of any season on record, according to the USA Today Network and the Globe. Earlier storms this year stayed weaker but still brought flooding rain to the Gulf Coast, weather.com noted.
The hurricane center posts full advisories every six hours at hurricanes.gov. The next one is due at 11 p.m. EDT Tuesday.
What we know: A depression formed Tuesday and is forecast to be a hurricane by Thursday.
What we don't: Exactly where it will come ashore, and how strong it will be then.
Where outlets agree The hurricane center, Fox Weather and nola.com all say the depression should become a tropical storm by Wednesday and a hurricane by Thursday.
Where they differ Fox Weather and nola.com stress the forecast for a Category 2 storm near the coast, while weather.com says wind shear will likely sap some of its strength before landfall.