Gulf crude exports climb back above prewar levels despite attacks
Oil exports from the Middle East rose above their prewar level on several days in late September, Reuters reported, even as tankers kept getting hit. The seven-day average reached about 18.5 million barrels a day. More oil on the water has helped ease prices from their peak.
Oil is flowing out of the Middle East again, despite the war. Crude exports from the region topped their prewar level on Sept. 24 and again from Sept. 27 to 29, Reuters reported, citing data from the ship-tracking firm Kpler. Daily exports ranged from about 19.5 million to 22.5 million barrels on those days.
The seven-day average reached about 18.5 million barrels a day on Oct. 1, compared with roughly 18 million before the war began in late February, according to Reuters and Gulf News. About 40% of the crude now skips Hormuz through Saudi and Emirati pipelines, according to Kpler, while Iran's own exports are near zero.
The recovery has come under fire, literally. At least seven tankers have been hit in recent attacks, Reuters said. On Sunday, the brand-new tanker Lipsi was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, damaging its engine room. Iran says it will not reopen the strait to normal traffic until the United States meets seven conditions.
So how is oil getting out? Shipowners are taking more risks as prices stay high, and some producers are using pipelines that skip the strait. Saudi Arabia can send crude west to the Red Sea. The United Arab Emirates has a pipeline to the port of Fujairah, outside Hormuz. But Yemen's Houthis now control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, adding another chokepoint.
Insurance is a big factor. War-risk premiums for tankers have soared, and some owners will not send ships at any price.
For consumers, more supply has helped. Brent crude slipped toward $101 a barrel Monday, and U.S. gas prices have dipped from September records.
What we know: Gulf exports have recovered to or above prewar levels on several days.
What we don't: Whether attacks or Iran's demands will cut flows again.
Where outlets agree Reuters and Nikkei Asia both report that Middle East crude exports rose above prewar levels on several late-September days, based on Kpler tracking data.
Where they differ Traders see the rebound as proof supply can hold up, while shipping groups warn that continued attacks make each voyage a gamble.