September jobs rose 29,000 as unemployment hit 4.2%
Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, and prior months were revised down by 60,000. Unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. Private payrolls still rose 46,000 while government fell 17,000, leaving workers and Fed watchers arguing soft landing versus stall into Monday's open.
September's employment report, released Friday, showed nonfarm payrolls up 29,000 — far below the 90,000 consensus. July and August were revised lower by a combined 60,000, so the three-month package including revisions was a net loss of 31,000 jobs on First Trust's reading of the BLS tables. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose only 0.1% on the month and 3.0% over the year — the slowest annual wage pace since May 2021 on CNN's account.
Private employers added 46,000 jobs while government payrolls fell 17,000. Health care and social assistance led gains (+23,000), with construction (+11,000) and manufacturing (+9,000) also up. Information lost 10,000. The household survey showed civilian employment rising 406,000 and labor-force participation edging up to 61.8%, details First Trust flagged as sturdier than the soft headline.
Markets treated the print as cover against an October hike. StreetInsider's Reuters wrap said FedWatch odds for a late-October move fell toward the low-20% range. That does not settle December: LiveMint's Reuters bond story still showed traders pricing a high chance of a hike later in the year if inflation stays sticky. CNN noted it was the final official employment snapshot before the Nov. 3 midterms.
Backstory: August's previously reported surge had fueled hike talk. Friday's downward revisions and soft September print flipped that narrative for the near term without proving a recession. Federal payrolls remain deep in the red over the past year as agencies shrink.
Where to watch: next week's claims data and Monday's equity open after a quiet weekend tape.
What we know:
BLS printed +29,000 payrolls, 4.2% unemployment, +0.1% average hourly earnings, private +46,000, government -17,000, and -60,000 prior-month revisions.
What we don't:
Whether the soft headline is a one-month soft patch or the start of a broader stall heading into midterms.
Where outlets agree CNN, First Trust, and Reuters market wraps agree September payrolls rose 29,000 with unemployment at 4.2% and large downward revisions.
Where they differ Some economists call the details still healthy while others say soft headlines plus sticky prices raise stall and stagflation risks.