10-year yield ends near 5.28% after jobs whip-saw
Treasury yields fell right after the soft jobs report, then climbed back. The 10-year note finished Friday near 5.28%, on track for a fifth straight weekly rise. Mortgage and car-loan shoppers still face high borrowing costs even as October Fed hike odds cooled.
U.S. Treasury yields reversed an early rally Friday as traders digested the soft payrolls print and then sold bonds into the close. A Reuters report on LiveMint said the benchmark 10-year yield rose about 4.7 basis points to 5.281% after dipping as low as 5.157% right after the data. The 2-year yield finished near 4.827%, and the 30-year near 5.63%.
The whip-saw mattered for households because longer yields still set the tone for mortgages and many auto loans even when Fed funds odds soften. For the week, the 10-year was on track for roughly a 10-basis-point rise — a fifth consecutive weekly advance — while the 2-year posted its first weekly decline since mid-August. LSEG pricing still showed roughly an 86% chance of a December hike even as October odds faded, per the same Reuters wrap.
Strategists pointed to heavy Treasury supply, sticky inflation fears from energy prices, and weekend positioning. TD Securities' Molly Brooks said the soft labor print reduced urgency for an October hike but did not clear the bond market out of the woods. SummitTX's Robert Bernstone called the mood cautious optimism — relief on the near-term hike, worry on growth and inflation together.
Backstory: Thursday had already interrupted a seven-day climb in long yields after those rates touched multi-decade highs. Friday proved buyers would still show up on soft data, then sellers returned when the Fed path for later this year stayed alive.
Where to watch: Monday's open and any auction calendar stress next week.
What we know:
Confirmed Friday closes put the 10-year near 5.28% after an early dip. Weekly 10-year yields were still rising even as October hike odds fell.
What we don't:
Whether next week's supply and oil moves push yields through recent highs again.
Where outlets agree LiveMint/Reuters and MarketScreener agree Treasury yields ended Friday higher after reversing an early post-jobs decline.
Where they differ Desks split on whether the climb reflects supply stress, sticky inflation fears, or a still-live December Fed hike path.