Dollar slips below 102 after soft jobs cut October hike odds
The dollar index fell back below 102 after September payrolls rose just 29,000. Softer yields and fading October Fed hike odds capped a four-day dollar advance.
The U.S. dollar index slipped below 102 on Friday, ending a four-session climb, after the Labor Department reported only 29,000 new jobs in September. Trading Economics and ActionForex both described the post-print move: DXY had pressed above 102 into the release, then retreated toward about 101.7 as traders cut October Federal Reserve hike odds.
The same soft labor package that moved bonds also hit the dollar. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, average hourly earnings rose just 0.1%, and prior months were revised lower. CNBC and Quartz put the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.18% and the 2-year near 4.73%, with FedWatch around an 84% chance of a hold at the late-October meeting. Lower U.S. yields narrowed the rate edge that had supported the dollar through the week’s climb toward multi-year Treasury highs.
Backstory: Thursday’s bond selloff had lifted the 10-year yield as high as about 5.34%, the highest since 2002, and kept a firm bid under the dollar into jobs day. Iran and Hormuz risk still give the dollar a modest safe-haven role, but Friday’s domestic labor miss was the near-term driver. Desks note the weekly dollar gain may still stick even after the intraday pullback, so this is a cap on the rally rather than a confirmed trend reverse.
Engage: Trading Economics and ActionForex for the DXY levels; CNBC and Quartz for the linked Treasury move; BLS tables for the jobs facts. Watch the Fed’s October meeting and any further Iran energy headlines that could reprice real yields and safe-haven demand.
Where outlets agree Trading Economics, ActionForex, CNBC, and Quartz agree the soft September jobs print knocked the dollar back below 102 as Treasury yields fell and October Fed hike odds collapsed.
Where they differ Some desks call Friday a clean cap on the dollar’s four-day advance; others say weekly gains and Iran safe-haven bids can still support another push higher if 101 support holds.