10-year Treasury yield hits highest since 2002 as bond sell-off deepens
The U.S. 10-year yield rose to about 5.34%, its highest since 2002, as a global bond sell-off resumed. Soft August PCE still cools October Fed-hike odds, but oil above $100 keeps long rates under pressure.
U.S. Treasury yields jumped to a 24-year high Thursday as a global bond sell-off gathered pace, rewriting the calm that followed Wednesday's softer inflation print. The 10-year yield rose as high as about 5.34%, its highest level since early 2002, Reuters and CNBC reported. The 30-year yield also pushed to a 2002-era high near 5.69%.
The move comes one day after the Bureau of Economic Analysis said August personal consumption expenditures prices rose 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year, with core PCE at 0.2% and 3.0%. That softer-than-expected path had briefly cooled bets on an October Federal Reserve hike. Thursday's tape showed oil-linked inflation fears and heavy government borrowing still dominate the long end: Brent climbed back above $100 a barrel while Japan, Germany, France, and the U.K. also saw sharp yield rises.
Strategists tie the rout to sticky inflation after the Iran war energy shock, large fiscal deficits, and the risk that higher oil keeps the Fed from easing. Soft PCE still matters for the near-term path — New York Fed President John Williams had said there was "no need for urgency" on another hike — but a 5.3% 10-year yield raises mortgage, auto, and credit-card borrowing costs for households even if October stays off the table. Watch ISM manufacturing, weekly claims, and Friday's September jobs report for the next reset into the October FOMC window.
Backstory: Treasuries just posted their biggest quarterly yield rise of this century in the July–September stretch, and oil has pulled bond markets into a tight loop not seen since the early 1990s. Wednesday's PCE surprise bought a pause narrative; Thursday's open tested whether that pause survives another leg higher in long-term rates.
Where outlets agree Reuters and CNBC agree the 10-year Treasury yield reached about 5.34% Thursday, the highest level since 2002, during a broader global bond sell-off.
Where they differ Whether soft August core PCE still points to a longer Fed pause — or whether oil-driven yields force markets to reprice December hike risk — is the open debate into Friday's jobs report.