Stocks dig into soft PCE as December Fed hike stays in play
Soft August PCE cooled October hike odds. Traders still price a possible December move while GDP was revised up to 2.2%. CNBC and BEA agree on the August PCE levels and the Q2 GDP revision to 2.
Wall Street’s Thursday tape opens against Wednesday’s softer PCE print and a hotter growth revision. CNBC and BEA tables show headline PCE up 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year, with core at 0.2% and 3.0% — both annual figures lighter than Dow Jones consensus. Personal spending rose 0.9% even as income gained only 0.2%. Final second-quarter GDP was revised to 2.2% from 1.5%.
Rate desks dialed down October FOMC hike odds after New York Fed President John Williams said there was no urgency, while December remained the more likely follow-up in futures pricing. Energy and Hormuz risk still complicate the disinflation story: gasoline jumped in the August PCE detail even as core cooled versus forecasts. Method changes that revised July core lower by about 0.36 percentage point remain a footnote bulls cite and hawks discount.
Backstory: the Fed’s 2% goal is still distant, and September’s hike already showed a willingness to move. Watch ISM Manufacturing, claims, and Friday’s jobs report. Engage: BEA release tables and CME FedWatch-style probability boards. Agree the print was soft to consensus; differ on whether December is still live.
As of Thursday, October 1, the public record on “Stocks dig into soft PCE as December Fed hike stays in play” still matches the facts above. For markets and household budgets, Thursday’s business coverage sticks to confirmed prints, prices, and company guidance. Reporting from CNBC, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Kiplinger anchors the Sources list; this card does not invent tallies, quotes, or outcomes beyond what those links support.
Where outlets agree CNBC and BEA agree on the August PCE levels and the Q2 GDP revision to 2.2%.
Where they differ Doves say October is off the table; hawks say still-hot levels and energy keep December in play.