More than 450,000 people could die from additional heat tied to the current “Godzilla-level” El Niño over the next six months, according to Climate Impact Lab estimates published via The Guardian and NBC News on September 23—figures layered on top of deaths already driven by long-term climate warming.

Co-authors including University of Chicago’s Michael Greenstone and UC Berkeley’s Tamma Carleton combined peer-reviewed temperature–mortality relationships across 24,378 regions with forward temperature forecasts from September through February 2027. The most affected countries include Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil; the United States ranks in the top 20 with about 3,500 projected additional heat deaths. Researchers urge heat forecasts, cooling centers, surge medical staffing, and outdoor-worker protections now, arguing the event is also a “postcard from our future” for temperatures expected in roughly two decades.

The World Food Programme has separately warned El Niño impacts could push about 50 million people into acute hunger. Imperial College’s Friederike Otto noted the event redistributes energy atop an already hotter baseline, producing unprecedented local extremes. Authors said they are submitting to a peer-reviewed journal but released numbers early because delaying would be “irresponsible.”

Accounts agree on the ~451,000 headline estimate and regional priorities; skeptics may debate model uncertainty, which the team frames as decision-relevant ranges rather than precise death certificates. NewsHabit files the projection under Health for its mortality focus while Science covers the storm and ENSO physics. Officials and independent outlets continue updating confirmed details as they become available. Officials and independent outlets continue updating confirmed details as they become available.